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Score-based Causal Learning in Additive Noise Models

机译:基于分数的加性噪声​​模型中的因果学习

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摘要

Given data sampled from a number of variables, one is often interested in theunderlying causal relationships in the form of a directed acyclic graph. In thegeneral case, without interventions on some of the variables it is onlypossible to identify the graph up to its Markov equivalence class. However, insome situations one can find the true causal graph just from observationaldata, for example in structural equation models with additive noise andnonlinear edge functions. Most current methods for achieving this rely onnonparametric independence tests. One of the problems there is that the nullhypothesis is independence, which is what one would like to get evidence for.We take a different approach in our work by using a penalized likelihood as ascore for model selection. This is practically feasible in many settings andhas the advantage of yielding a natural ranking of the candidate models. Whenmaking smoothness assumptions on the probability density space, we proveconsistency of the penalized maximum likelihood estimator. We also presentempirical results for simulated scenarios and real two-dimensional data sets(cause-effect pairs) where we obtain similar results as other state-of-the-artmethods.
机译:给定从多个变量中采样的数据,人们常常对有向无环图形式的潜在因果关系感兴趣。在一般情况下,在不干预某些变量的情况下,只能确定其马尔可夫等价类之前的图。但是,在某些情况下,仅从观测数据中可以找到真正的因果图,例如在具有加性噪声和非线性边缘函数的结构方程模型中。当前实现此目的的大多数方法依赖于非参数独立性测试。问题之一是原假设是独立性,这就是人们想要得到的证据。我们在工作中采用了一种不同的方法,即使用惩罚似然作为模型选择的得分。在许多情况下这实际上是可行的,并且具有产生候选模型自然排名的优势。在概率密度空间上进行平滑假设时,我们证明了惩罚最大似然估计的一致性。我们还提供了模拟场景和实际二维数据集(因果对)的经验结果,在这些结果中,我们获得了与其他最新方法类似的结果。

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